Type 2 diabetes epidemic in East Asia: a 35–year systematic trend analysis

Facing the challenge of effective prevention type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in China (as part of global health) requires knowledge about both the temporal trend and risk factors variation in T2DM. We searched the PubMed, CNKI, WANFANG, and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) databases for data on the prevalence of T2DM/ IGT (impaired glucose tolerance) published from January 1, 1980 to December 31, 2014 in China, Japan and Korea. The prevalence of T2DM was estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using random-effects meta-analysis. T2DM prevalence trend in the next 10 years was estimated by using a time series regression model based on the 35 years of data. The 621 articles covered 11.8 million Chinese people, 1.64 million Japanese, and 37.69 million Koreans. The aggregate prevalence of T2DM in China has increased sharply from 1.3% in 1980-1989 to 4.5% in 1990-1999, 6.8% 2000-2009, and 8.7% in 2010-2014. We estimated that by 2025, T2DM prevalence will have grown to 12.5%. Central obesity is the largest preventable cause of T2DM. We also found that female having a very high BMI (body mass index, ≥28 kg/m2) and being an older (≥50 years old) female are next-highest risk factors for T2DM compared with male. Consistent with the patterns characterized for China, T2DM prevalence in Japan increased with aging, and men were more likely to develop T2DM. It was the same as Korea. In the Far East, especially in China, T2DM prevalence will continue to increase until 2025. Statistical analyses were conducted using Stata 12.0 and SPSS 19.0.